I haven’t yet coined a phrase so we will see if this one catches on! Lots of talk recently on the quick in and quick out of the recession following a ‘V’ sign, but there is a growing consensus that actually we are going to go back down again. This would cause the economy to behave more like a ‘W’ and from my perspective looks more realistic.
Even in our own industry we have seen a huge amount of layoffs and with BT recently announcing a further 15,000 job cuts you have to wonder where these people are going to get new jobs from. Apparently over 2.2 million are registered as unemployed but I would guess we would be looking at a lot more if the government included all those not registered. All of those looking for jobs were once active customers who are now probably being a little more cautious which will only impact on the speed of recovery.
There is also talk that the recent stock market rally has no basis and that with the governments borrowed to the maximum there aren’t going to be any more shots in the arm. It just has to run its course and hopefully we will all be a little bit more humble during the boom times so that when there is an inventible downturn the impact is not so great.
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