Piers Daniell

With the announcement last week that BT will be offering Sky Sports through its BT Vision product, I am convinced, more than ever that BT will focus on becoming a media company rather than a telecom provider. By using the premise of providing fast internet access (BT has earmarked over £2.5 bn into the investment into fibre based products, FTTC and FTTH), it has been able to create a platform to compete directly against Sky and Virgin Media.

While the rollout of these products is currently low, the footprint will bring the fight directly to Virgin’s door. And while Virgin may offer internet access it gets nowhere near the support from government as it is perceived as being a media company and not as a technology enabler, like BT. So while BT gets good press on bringing faster internet to the masses, and not its actual intentions on competing against Sky & Virgin, the others are treated, rightly, as a media companies.

This action further ruins BT’s reputation within the telecom industry as customers needs are being put to the bottom of the pile, while saying publically they are at the top. The BT Vision product, for example, is given priority across the BT backbone to ensure the TV quality is comparable to the competition. This means that other traffic is left to fight it out over the remaining space reducing quality. A niche ISP who has worked with BT for many years even put a public notice out on their blog about the issues their customers are experiencing because of the reduction in capacity. And this situation can only get worse as BT’s plans to become a media player grow.

My message, therefore, is don’t believe the headlines. Unless you are going to become a direct BT Vision customer then I can only see you being disappointed with BT’s connectivity plans.

As 2010 rolls in, I am reminded that a decade is a significant period of time and a good one to reflect on, especially in the world of IT and Telecoms. What have we achieved in the past ten years, and what, if any, predictions can be made about the next ten years? Well, for one, Fluidata couldn’t exist until 2004 on the back of ADSL technology, to launch as its own business until early 2006. Which means that the last decade has seen great advances in internet connectivity speeds and brought the word ‘broadband’ into common parlance.

We might be far behind many other countries in this race, but don’t forget in 2000 dialup was the norm and businesses like Freeserve dominated internet access with products offering up to 56 Kb/s. Now people have the choice of ADSL2+ offering up to 24 Mb/s (24,000 Kb/s in old money) or even 50 Mb/s with certain cable broadband offerings. Fluidata, for one, became a leader in bonding technology providing services over multiple carrier networks at speeds up to 60 Mb/s down and 8 Mb/s up with PureFluid. Even gigabit (1,000,000 Kb/s) speed is achievable with the use of fibre, as well as more affordable especially in urban areas.

Networks not only got faster, but also more intelligent, with quality of service, large wide area private networks and MPLS protocols. Businesses put voice over the internet and now video is seeing a resurgence with advances in HD video conferencing. Which begs the question - what will happen in the next ten years?

With the industry talking about FTTH (Fibre to the Home) and FTTC (Fibre to the Cabinet) more people will be able to experience the high speeds that fibre can deliver. But remember this isn’t like the previous decade when the main infrastructure (the cables) remained the same. This technology requires something new which not only will absorb huge amounts of money, but also time and resource. The cynic in me would say BT’s 21CN (to provide ADSL2+ and more IP services) offering is aimed purely at the LLU carriers such as Tiscali, Carphone Warehouse, Cable & Wireless and O2. I am sure its reach won’t extend over 2,000 exchanges by the end of the next decade. So FTTH or FTTC products are purely to take the fight to the cable operators such as Virgin. And what will quench our thirst for data? I believe there will still be some advances in DSL with products such as VDSL, but also other completely different technologies which will see in excess of 100 Mb/s over copper. Bonding will become more prevalent and give rise to a larger number of niche ISPs able to aggregate multiple networks together, not only to improve performance, but also reliability. Fibre will of course continue to grow in popularity and while still not being within easy reach of home users, will hit more of the SME market as costs reduce.

Other technologies such as WiMAX will become more widespread as companies such as Intel start to bundle the protocols into their mobile chipsets. I know of one company soon to come to market with a 3 GHz service which, if widely adopted, could bridge the gap between broadband and 3G mobile networks. Another product I am looking forward to seeing more of is BPL (Broadband Power Line), which has the potential to deliver many hundreds of Mb/s anywhere in the country over a normal power line. It has been a long time in the making, but I believe this decade will see its widespread adoption.

Mobile broadband still has a long way to go so that future services, such as cloud computing, can be widely used. And what else is in store? Well to be honest, it can be anybody’s guess. The great thing about this industry is the fact it continues to innovate and change - I’m, for one, looking forward to the next decade.

There is a lot of talk at the moment about FTTH (Fibre to the Home) and FTTC (Fibre to the Cabinet) replacing DSL in the UK. However I think we are looking at many years before these technologies make any significant impact on the market as a whole. For one BT is protecting its business customers as much as possible, so the product is very much consumer oriented with high downloads, but crucially low upload speeds. Granted 2 Mb/s is a good upload for a customer but that speed is already served nationwide through the plethora of ADSL2+ exchanges with the likes of Carphone Warehouse and O2.

My feeling is that BT will continue to lower the cost of fibre to businesses, who still put a lot of value in this technology, to help drive access so that it can serve consumers in the long term. I have previously talked about their trials with FTTC with the issues surrounding the technology and scale needed for wide adoption of this technology.

So the short and medium term DSL still has a very important part to play in internet delivery and more so as businesses look to increase their reliance with the adoption of cloud and voice applications. We have been bonding DSL products for many years and with services capable of up to 80 Mb/s down and 10 Mb/s up there is a compelling case that FTTC and FTTH have a way to go.

News last week on Britain’s abysmal performance in the global rankings on broadband speed. Apparently Britain is 25^th out of 66 countries across the world, dropping us one place over last year. It may sound dire but from my perspective we are victims of our own success. Britian, for one, has to deal with one of the oldest telecoms infrastructures in the world making substantial gains in performance difficult and expensive.

In the same way that Britain used to lead the world with the train during the industrial revolution, it can’t now due to the old and decaying infrastructure. I was told once that just to patch a road costs more than laying a new one so when you are dealing with an existing infrastructure that is being constantly used it is difficult to make big changes. The US for example was lambasted for many years with their inferior television network because they were first to the table while the Europeans waited for the more superior PAL technology.

So I would argue that being first to the table, which gave us the advantage back then, is holding us back now. Countries like Korea and China who are building this infrastructure for the first time are able to invest in the very latest technology whereas a complete overhaul of the UK’s infrastructure will cost in excess of £30bn. This cost will always be a difficult pill to swallow and even the Conservative party turned it down when BT first suggested it to Margaret Thatcher when it would cost less than £10bn.

Currently the market will make it happen with the launch of FTTC, FTTH and advances in ADSL technology but I envisage we will continue to remain low in the league tables until we have caught up with the developing nations.

Interesting article about BT’s new street cabinets that are being used as part of the FTTC (Fibre To The Cabinet) roll out. Due to the size and cost of the technology that needs to be deployed in these boxes have had a revamp, but it looks like appearance wasn’t a big concern at the planning stage. As the 80,000 or so boxes across the country get upgraded it is likely this new story will become bigger as more councils and residents start to object.

Looks like BT will have to go back to the drawing board quickly if they want to prevent a negative reaction to the new technology.

News from Thinkbroadband on Andrews & Arnold’s (AAISP) recent success installing FTTC into one of their client’s premises. Just goes to show BT are going to really shift their focus over the coming year towards fibre and away from their failing 21CN project. From AA’s recent issues with BT in providing their clients with a reliable 21CN they are obviously keen to find an alternative technology.

Essentially the FTTC is putting VDSL equipment into the local cabinet (instead of the exchange) dramatically lowering the distance from the DSLAM to the clients office. This ensures the speeds are better but also means that BT doesn’t have to go through the costly exercise of getting fibre into every building. This way as BT upgrade their existing 80,000 or so cabinets they can look to run fibre to them and hence offer VDSL services. I believe this is their preferred route to market as it would jump all the existing LLU carriers who have been deploying ADSL2+ for quite a while now.

However on first inspection it seems like a lot of work for not much gain. In this example the customer reportedly received 40 Mb/s down but was impressed by the upload of 1.7 Mb/s. Agreed that this is a big increase on what BT can currently deliver using their small ADSL2+ footprint but nothing compared to the 2.6 or even 2.7 Mb/s we have achieved with some of our clients using ADSL2+ Annex-M. Admittedly this is using the Telefonica O2 network, who we have an interconnect with, but still not the giant leap BT were hoping for. Also by installing two lines customers can receive over 40 Mb/s down with over 5 Mb/s upload as one service taking away the current gains of FTTC.

Obviously over time the footprint and technology will grow in very much the same way ADSL did when it first arrived in the UK. However I think we are looking at 18-months or so before you see any wide adoption of this promising technology.

BT recently announced details on their FTTC (Fibre to the Cabinet) trial that they are planning across the UK. They are looking to enable roughly 0.035% of the available cabinets with this technology making the trial anything but a publicity exercise.

I am sorry but hosting VDSL equipment in the cabinet is going to end in tears – how many of you I wonder have walked along the road and seen a open BT cabinet with the wires exposed? I for one walk past an open cabinet next to our office on a daily basis so I wonder how this technology will stand up in the real world.

And why when you are running fibre to the cabinet, installing local technology and investing in brining on new clients would you only offer up to 60 Mb/s down and 10 Mb/s up? We (ie Fluidata) already offer 60 Mb/s down and 8 Mb/s up using ADSL2+ technology to nearly 18 million homes and businesses – and have done for the past two years!