Piers Daniell

As 2010 rolls in, I am reminded that a decade is a significant period of time and a good one to reflect on, especially in the world of IT and Telecoms. What have we achieved in the past ten years, and what, if any, predictions can be made about the next ten years? Well, for one, Fluidata couldn’t exist until 2004 on the back of ADSL technology, to launch as its own business until early 2006. Which means that the last decade has seen great advances in internet connectivity speeds and brought the word ‘broadband’ into common parlance.

We might be far behind many other countries in this race, but don’t forget in 2000 dialup was the norm and businesses like Freeserve dominated internet access with products offering up to 56 Kb/s. Now people have the choice of ADSL2+ offering up to 24 Mb/s (24,000 Kb/s in old money) or even 50 Mb/s with certain cable broadband offerings. Fluidata, for one, became a leader in bonding technology providing services over multiple carrier networks at speeds up to 60 Mb/s down and 8 Mb/s up with PureFluid. Even gigabit (1,000,000 Kb/s) speed is achievable with the use of fibre, as well as more affordable especially in urban areas.

Networks not only got faster, but also more intelligent, with quality of service, large wide area private networks and MPLS protocols. Businesses put voice over the internet and now video is seeing a resurgence with advances in HD video conferencing. Which begs the question - what will happen in the next ten years?

With the industry talking about FTTH (Fibre to the Home) and FTTC (Fibre to the Cabinet) more people will be able to experience the high speeds that fibre can deliver. But remember this isn’t like the previous decade when the main infrastructure (the cables) remained the same. This technology requires something new which not only will absorb huge amounts of money, but also time and resource. The cynic in me would say BT’s 21CN (to provide ADSL2+ and more IP services) offering is aimed purely at the LLU carriers such as Tiscali, Carphone Warehouse, Cable & Wireless and O2. I am sure its reach won’t extend over 2,000 exchanges by the end of the next decade. So FTTH or FTTC products are purely to take the fight to the cable operators such as Virgin. And what will quench our thirst for data? I believe there will still be some advances in DSL with products such as VDSL, but also other completely different technologies which will see in excess of 100 Mb/s over copper. Bonding will become more prevalent and give rise to a larger number of niche ISPs able to aggregate multiple networks together, not only to improve performance, but also reliability. Fibre will of course continue to grow in popularity and while still not being within easy reach of home users, will hit more of the SME market as costs reduce.

Other technologies such as WiMAX will become more widespread as companies such as Intel start to bundle the protocols into their mobile chipsets. I know of one company soon to come to market with a 3 GHz service which, if widely adopted, could bridge the gap between broadband and 3G mobile networks. Another product I am looking forward to seeing more of is BPL (Broadband Power Line), which has the potential to deliver many hundreds of Mb/s anywhere in the country over a normal power line. It has been a long time in the making, but I believe this decade will see its widespread adoption.

Mobile broadband still has a long way to go so that future services, such as cloud computing, can be widely used. And what else is in store? Well to be honest, it can be anybody’s guess. The great thing about this industry is the fact it continues to innovate and change - I’m, for one, looking forward to the next decade.

Another politician without a clue on the industry they are governing? Well if you believe the hype on the forthcoming Digital Britain report then it looks like another own goal for broadband in the UK.

What the government seems to forget is that a new, fast digital Britain requires investment and much more than any private enterprise is ever going to recoup. On the one side you have Ofcom and the Government demanding lower prices to consumers and better reliability while now demanding more speed. As I have discussed before, fibre across the country would probably only be taken up by around 20% of existing broadband customers so in answer to their concern that there would be a digital divide – those who can afford it and those who can’t. In the same way there are people who can’t afford to use the trains or fly – if the government isn’t going to make the investment then it needs to provide a financial return for businesses to invest.

ISPs are very much like the train companies trying to operate on the old railway links. We know from experience that private investment wasn’t enough to make the differences to the railways with the re-nationalisation of Railtrack so why will telecoms be any different?

It will be interesting to read the final report, but I assume as with the majority of reports written for our industry, it will set out the dream with little practical detail on how to achieve it.

In broadband and telecommunications speak the answer is yes; financially it is anyone’s guess.

Looking at the consolidation that took place over the past few years with the major mobile carriers moving into broadband I believe it has shown an even bigger difference between the services businesses demand and those consumers receive. Because of this there should be more opportunities this year to provide businesses with a truly innovative connectivity solution.

Unfortunately for those providing services to consumers and SMEs the going has been tough during the turbulent times as the big boys force prices down and some like http://www.upstreaminter.net/ have had to call it a day. Personally I think the days of ultra cheap services are gone, especially with the high take up of IPTV services such as BBC’s IPlayer and Channel4’s 4OD. This will impact wholesale costs as the average usage for such lines increase. If you are buying for home the cost of broadband will probably be removed and integrated fully into a complete communication bundle (mobile, home phone etc) making it harder to see what you are actually playing. This in turn will allow the broadband only providers to stabilise pricing and look after the niche client base who put quality of service high up on their requirement list.

For those of us who like to offer something different, like we have done with Fluidata then I think the opportunities are great. Already we are seeing a high number of very high profile client’s review their telecommunication spend as business scrutinise expenditure. It gives us more of an opportunity to show these customers what they have been missing and how much new technology is available to increase speeds and reliability while keeping the Finance Director happy and driving down cost.

I can see this happening not only across our industry but across most others – at least this recession will give those smaller companies which have innovated and have a great business the opportunity to shine against larger competitors.

This week sees the launch of BT’s new promotion for businesses. Sign up today and get a free mobile dongle so you can browse the internet when not in the office! It sounds all terribly exciting until you read the contract, and realise that the mobile broadband has a paltry 1 GB limit and BT want you to commit to 2-years of service so they can make their money back.

Why anyone would commit to two years of service for a little ADSL line just so they can get a free mobile dongle is beyond me – we find it difficult sometimes to convince companies to accept 12-months with SDSL just because businesses don’t know what they will need in 6-months let alone 24.

If you are really tempted by this offer please trust me that your better off shopping around and getting something like 3’s pay as you go mobile broadband dongle for the times you need to work when you are away from the office.

In one of my previous comments I talk about the report the BSG recently published regarding fibre to the home will cost £28bn. Well to follow up the report the BSG held a meeting last week at their offices in London for the industry to discuss it in more detail. On the promise of cheese and wine I made the trip only to find four bottles of wine and a few plates of cheese to support the fifty or so who had gathered.

It was quite interesting to see the industry squirm in response to this report and the lack of direction there is. I promise you it will take more than BT to make this happen and looking at who else operates in the UK we will be decades behind the rest of the world. I think only an EU directive will make it happen (as we don’t make any laws in the UK anymore but don’t get me started on that subject!) and even then it will require government money.

The problem is that people are stuck in the mindset that they have to use BT’s existing infrastructure for some reason. Everything is based on using BT ducts, digging up roads and using BT exchanges and cabinets to make this network happen. Fine if you are BT investing your own money but why continue to use an infrastructure that was designed a hundred years ago when we can start again? There are so many technologies such as fibre overland, fibre through the sewer or other services such as WiMax or PLT (Powerline technology). The industry can afford to deploy these services and then we wont have an incumbent or have to wait 20 years for fast internet services.